报告人：姚烨副教授， 复旦大学
报告时间：2025.6.24（星期二），10:00-11:30
报告地点：数学楼2-3
报告题目：Cost-effectiveness analysis of different Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccines (PCV) schedules in mainland China
报告摘要：Of pneumonia cases among children under 5 years of age globally, 12% occur in mainland China. However, PCVs have not yet been introduced into the national immunization programme (NIP). The PCV13 vaccine was licensed in China in 2016 and is available on the private market. Given the high price of the vaccine, a large proportion of the population in mainland China remains unvaccinated with PCV. In this study, we estimated the cost-effectiveness of different PCV schedules in mainland China.
We extracted pneumococcal carriage (and serotype distribution among in carriage) by age from existing literature and fit a dynamic transmission model. Besides age, this model also differentiates colonizations between vaccine-type and non-vaccine-type pneumococci. We parameterise this model with vaccine efficacy estimates identified in existing literature by schedule (e.g. that of “3+1”&“3+0”&“2+1”). We then calculated the potential impact of different PCV schedules on the population level and estimated the corresponding cost-effectiveness.
We are fitting the model to the parameters identified in existing literature and will compare the potential impact of vaccinating more children with fewer doses to vaccinating fewer children with more doses - which will include exploring the implications of different vaccine coverage levels. We will also factor in spatial heterogeneity while calculating the cost-effectiveness of PCV vaccinations in different regions.
Our study is the first cost-effectiveness analysis of different PCV schedules for mainland China that considers the potential differences in vaccine efficacy achievable and indirect effects of vaccines. Evidence generated will be useful to future decision makings within China’s NIP.
报告人简介：姚烨，复旦大学公共卫生学院副教授。2011年获得复旦大学数学与应用数学学士后，2016年获得复旦大学数学科学学院应用数学博士、英国华威大学计算机科学博士。从事医学大数据驱动的人工智能与统计模拟研究、医学影像研究中的人工智能技术与应用，主要研究方向为基于马尔可夫模型的参数估计与模拟、传染病数学建模、多类型医疗数据统计分析及医学影像AI应用。其近几年在医学著名期刊European Respiratory Journal、eLife、BMC Medicine、BMJ Global Health、Infectious Disease Modelling、Infectious Diseases of Poverty等杂志以第一作者/通讯作者身份发表过多篇论文。研究成果亦已通过各级内参/专报，以政策建议的形式报送各级政府，获得国家疾控局发函肯定与中央政治局委员批示。另外，其已经主持过多项自然科学基金类项目以及若干横向课题，近五年总经费超过300万。姚烨老师先后获得复旦大学仲英青年学者、上海市科技进步二等奖（2/10）、上海市卫生健康青年人才、一健康基金优秀教师二等奖、复旦大学研究生辅导员风采奖、复旦大学抗击新冠疫情先进个人。
